Was 'Stop At Two' The Cause Of Our Low Birthrate?
All over the globe, every developed country with a high standard of living faces the same problem: not enough children are being born to replace the population.
As a result, almost every developed economy has to rely, to some extent, on immigration to fill jobs, support economic growth and offset an ageing population.
But have you ever wondered why?
According to The Economist (2006), one of the greatest drivers of modern economic growth has been the large-scale entry of women into the workforce. Greater labour participation has contributed enormously to higher incomes and improved living standards.
At the same time, however, it has also changed the way we live.
Consider a few trends.
a.) Careers compete with family life
Today, both men and women spend much of their adult lives studying and building careers. If a large part of our waking hours is devoted to education and work, there is naturally less time and energy left to raise children.
This raises an important question: do we really need to work as hard as we do? We'll come back to that later.
b.) Children are no longer viewed as an economic necessity
For most of history, children contributed to the household. They worked on family farms or businesses, and they were often expected to support their parents in old age.
Today, that is no longer the case in most developed societies.
Instead, raising children is largely seen as a personal choice rather than an economic necessity. Popular culture also reinforces different life goals. Television and movies frequently celebrate the independent professional who prioritises career and personal fulfilment before considering marriage or children.
Whether this is good or bad is a matter of opinion, but it has undoubtedly influenced attitudes towards starting families.
c.) Greater control over fertility
Modern contraception and legal access to abortion in many countries mean that having children is increasingly a deliberate decision rather than something left to chance.
d.) Families are starting later
Many couples postpone marriage and parenthood while they establish their careers, achieve financial goals or simply wait until they feel ready.
As people have children later in life, fertility naturally declines and the risk of pregnancy complications increases.
Many Singaporeans assume that our low birth rate is largely the result of the "Stop at Two" campaign of the 1970s and 1980s.
While that policy certainly played a role during its time, Singapore is hardly unique today. Many developed countries that never had such a campaign are experiencing similar or even lower fertility rates.
This suggests that broader social and economic changes are likely to be far more significant than a policy that ended decades ago.
Is Singapore doing anything about it?
Yes.
Over the years, the Government has introduced numerous measures to encourage marriage and parenthood, including:
Baby bonuses, tax relief and other financial incentives.
Legal protection against workplace discrimination for parents.
Policies encouraging shorter work weeks and flexible work arrangements.
Investment in digital infrastructure that makes remote work possible.
Family-oriented events and community programmes.
Public campaigns promoting work-life balance.
Grants and awards encouraging businesses to adopt family-friendly practices.
Whether these measures are sufficient is another question, but it would be inaccurate to say that nothing has been done.
The challenge is that policies can only do so much if individuals ultimately decide they would rather prioritise career progression, income or personal freedom over starting a family. Long working hours, particularly in many Asian societies, also make balancing work and family more difficult.
But do we really need to work so hard?
This brings us to another issue that often enters the discussion: the cost of living.
I'll discuss that in greater detail another time, but one distinction is worth making.
There is a difference between the cost of surviving and the cost of maintaining the lifestyle we aspire to.
Many Singaporeans understandably want more than the basics. We want comfortable homes, reliable transport, smartphones, holidays, restaurant meals and the many conveniences that come with modern life. There is nothing wrong with these aspirations.
The question is whether these aspirations also delay or discourage people from having children.
For many couples, having a child does not simply mean paying for diapers and school fees. It also means giving up income, career progression, leisure time and, in some cases, the lifestyle they have worked hard to build. The opportunity cost of having children has become much higher than it was a generation ago.
Governments can certainly ease some of these costs through subsidies, tax incentives and family-friendly policies. But they cannot completely remove the trade-offs. Every additional benefit has to be paid for somehow—through higher taxes, increased government spending or higher costs elsewhere in the economy.
Ultimately, low birth rates are not a uniquely Singaporean problem. They are a feature of almost every affluent society. As countries become wealthier, better educated and more urbanised, people tend to have fewer children.
This suggests that the issue is much deeper than any single government policy. It reflects the choices that individuals make, the lifestyles they aspire to, and the values that modern societies have gradually embraced.
That is why there is no simple solution. Governments can encourage people to have children, but they cannot make the decision for them. At the end of the day, the choice to start a family remains a deeply personal one—one that every developed society is still trying to understand.